I distinctly remember the day the head of IT from the home office visited our Atlanta branch. I was a newly minted customer service rep, still navigating the learning curve on my way to a prestigious, big money-making career selling commercial paper. Yes, the company was exactly like Dunder Mifflin. And no, I was not Dwight…
The IT guy sat me down and explained that management had selected me, the youngest and newest CSR, for a special project. I was going to help them load data and train customers on how to use the brand-new web order entry system that was set to revolutionize how our large commercial printing clients ordered paper. The interface sat on top of our AS/400 system and required a great deal of effort to ensure that data mapped correctly so customers could see real-time inventory and place orders through the portal.
At the time, we were just starting to hear rumblings about Korean and Chinese paper flooding the American market. I remember standing in the warehouse with our sales team, staring at pallets of bright white Korean paper that cost half as much as the American competitors. Distributors across the country made room for the foreign competition… and that marked the beginning of a slow decline in market share for companies like Domtar, International Paper, and Neenah. All those competitors needed were lower pricing, equivalent brightness, and printability that was “good enough.”
The subsequent transformation of the commercial printing market into its much leaner current form is just one example of many industries that have passed their peaks and are now in slow decline across America.
I share this memory because, like many of you, I’ve been soul-searching about AI’s impact on my future and the future of my children. I’ve been thinking back to all those times when an unknown disruption threatened what I thought was a clear path forward. While I’ve embraced AI with both hands over the past couple of years, many people in my orbit, and at my clients, have not… or are doing so tepidly.
To be completely honest, I get it. A part of me remains skeptical about the hype. Just a few months ago, I spoke with the CIO of a $1.5 billion manufacturer who expressed the same sentiment. He thought it was all just “hype.” And if you’ve lived through real disruptions, as I hope you will, your skepticism feels legit.
Martin Cooper – The father of the cell phone
The outsourcing of U.S. manufacturing (we’re still the world’s second-largest manufacturer)… Eating veggies to Weight Watchers to GLP-1s… The car phone to the cell to the flip to the BlackBerry to the smart… The clunky web portal on AS/400 to JDE to ECC to SAP S/4HANA or Oracle Cloud… The evolution of DARPA NET to the internet to the mega services that deliver dopamine to our hands and products to our doors.
The one thing all those shifts had in common? Evangelists who warned of the imminent and immediate replacement of everything that came before. As if to punctuate my point, I was reviewing a legal document from an AI company earlier this week and just below the line for my cell number, there was a field labeled FAX. Talk about old tech dying slowly…
While we can all point to the artifacts of our misguided youth, there’s a concept called Moore’s Law that’s particularly relevant to the AI revolution. In 1965, Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel, observed: “The number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years, while the cost of computers is halved.”
Disruptive technical evolution is not linear… it’s logarithmic. My simpleton interpretation is that advancement accelerates until a disruptor emerges and the curve starts to descend into maturity, a concept straight out of business school strategy. Remember when “googling” became a verb? Don’t worry, “ChatGPTing” likely won’t, but Apple is reportedly considering replacing Google’s $20 billion search deal with AI-driven tools like OpenAI, Perplexity, and Anthropic. A clear signal: traditional search may be about to crest the curve.
So how does this all affect you and me?
We’ve established that we’re apprehensive about a future we don’t fully understand… that technology doesn’t always move as fast as your Instagram feed suggests… and that disruption simmers before it boils.
So while we don’t need to fear the reaper today… we absolutely must be ready to adapt next week.
Over the last 25 years, I’ve seen dozens of supply chain and technology disruptions leave behind competent, loyal, and hard-working people. The one constant? The people who adopted early and who promoted innovation are usually the ones who stick around. This is not always the case. Many companies jam through implementations with little regard for people or process, technologies become shelfware and so scapegoats must be had. But those early adopters almost always land on their feet, because the skills they gain are transferable.
You only want one pallet of paper? – T-800 Office Supply Model
So if you think your job isn’t at risk, you’re wrong.
Your job will change, and someone who learns to use the tools of the future better than you could take it. Even if you’re a manager, a director, or a VP… The leaders who embrace agentic AI and learn to manage it across their functions will be the ones who thrive.
Stand by for next week’s post… I’ll cover the critical skills and strategies you need to future-proof your place in the AI-driven enterprise.